The links on this page provide access to the Excel workbooks for each of the models that contributed to the tables or figures in the Transport Outlook: Future State report.  They provide additional detail beyond that contained in the published tables and figures. Typically, there is a documentation file describing the model and a model file for each of the Base Case and four alternative scenarios. 

These Excel workbooks are designed to work as a system with numerous links between them and, in some cases, to additional files.  Although the links are contained in the workbooks available here, the files will not work as a system without some additional configuration on the user’s computer.  Therefore, we do not recommend using these files to test the impact of changes in assumptions or to create new scenarios.  For users who wish to work with the models, we plan to produce a zip file that can download the entire modelling package and install it properly onto a user’s computer.  We hope to have this package available by the end of 2017.

For questions about these models, please contact transportoutlook@transport.govt.nz.

 

Population and GDP Assumptions

Documentation File:

Population and GDP Assumptions Documentation [PDF, 295 KB]

Model Files:

Population and GDP base updated [XLSX, 68 KB]

Population and GDP close updated [XLSX, 68 KB]

Population and GDP metro updated [XLSX, 75 KB]

Population and GDP golden updated [XLSX, 71 KB]

Population and GDP at home updated [XLSX, 71 KB]

 

Household Travel Model

Documentation File:

Household Travel Model SAS Documentation [PDF, 581 KB] (this documents the Household Travel Model SAS programmes that generate inputs to the Excel-based Household Travel Model Post-Processor)

Household Travel Model Postprocessor Documentation [PDF, 305 KB] (this documents the Excel-based Household Travel Model, available below)

Model Files:

trip_summary_region_postprocess base 20170717 updated [XLSX, 846 KB]

trip_summary_region_postprocess close 20170718 updated [XLSX, 843 KB]

trip_summary_region_postprocess metro 20170717 updated [XLSX, 847 KB]

trip_summary_region_postprocess golden 20170717 updated [XLSX, 845 KB]

trip_summary_region_postprocess at home 20170717 updated [XLSX, 846 KB]

 

VKT/Vehicle Numbers Model

Documentation File:

VKT-Vehicle Numbers Model Documentation [PDF, 408 KB]

Model Files:

VKT and Vehicle Numbers Model base 20171113 [XLSX, 433 KB]

VKT and Vehicle Numbers Model close 20171122 [XLSX, 431 KB]

VKT and Vehicle Numbers Model metro 20171122 [XLSX, 433 KB]

VKT and Vehicle Numbers Model golden 20171122 [XLSX, 433 KB]

VKT and Vehicle Numbers Model at home 20171122 [XLSX, 434 KB]

 

Freight Model

Documentation File:

Freight Model Documentation [PDF, 422 KB]

Model Files:

Freight model base wCanterbury split 20171031 [XLSX, 5 MB]

Freight model close wCanterbury split 20170802 [XLSX, 4.9 MB]

Freight model metro wCanterbury split 20170802 [XLSX, 4.9 MB]

Freight model golden wCanterbury split 20170802 [XLSX, 4.9 MB]

Freight model at home wCanterbury split 20170802 [XLSX, 4.9 MB]

 

Road Freight Tonne-KM by Region Model

 Documentation File:

Road Freight TonneKM Model Documentation [PDF, 291 KB]

Model Files:

Road Freight TonneKM by Region base 20171101 [XLSX, 398 KB]

Road Freight TonneKM by Region close 20170802 [XLSX, 396 KB]

Road Freight TonneKM by Region metro 20170802 [XLSX, 396 KB]

Road Freight TonneKM by Region golden 20170802 [XLSX, 396 KB]

Road Freight TonneKM by Region at home 20170802 [XLSX, 397 KB]

 

Vehicle Fleet Emissions Model (generating road vehicle fleet/fuel/emissions projections)

Documentation File:

None, as the workbook below simply displays results generated by SAS programmes

Model Files:

VFEM run20170719_Adj_ghg&fuel_FY [XLSX, 1.9 MB] (includes all five scenarios)

 

OD-Based International Air Passenger Model

Documentation File:

OD-Based International Air Passenger Model Documentation [PDF, 320 KB]

Model Files:

Intl departures (OD-based) projection model-Include 4airports-20170508 [XLSX, 345 KB] (includes all five scenarios)

 

OD-Based Domestic Air Passenger Model

Documentation File:

OD-Based Domestic Air Passenger Model Documentation [PDF, 392 KB]

MoT Hazledine Final Report [PDF, 134 KB]

Model Files:

Regional air travel forecasting model 20170508_Basecase&ScenarioA [XLSX, 7.8 MB] (results apply to both the Base Case and Staying Close to the Action scenario)

Regional air travel forecasting model 20170508_ScenarioB [XLSX, 7.8 MB] (results apply to the Metro-Connected scenario)

Regional air travel forecasting model 20170508_ScenarioC [XLSX, 7.8 MB] (results apply to the Golden Triangle scenario)

Regional air travel forecasting model 20170508_ScenarioD [XLSX, 7.8 MB] (results apply to the @Home in Town and Country scenario)

 

Leg-Based Air Passenger Departures Model

Documentation File:

Leg Based Air Passenger Model Documentation [PDF, 523 KB]

Model Files:

Leg-based departure projection model_Include 4airports_20170508 [XLSX, 507 KB] (includes all five scenarios)

 

Aircraft KM Travelled/Fuel Use/Emissions Model

Documentation File:

Aircraft Movement and GHG Emission Model Documentation [PDF, 650 KB]

Model Files:

Domestic Aviation AKM-GHG projection model for transport outlook-20170622 [XLSX, 810 KB] (includes all five scenarios)